DoW · DOW-UAP-D077
Western U.S. Event Case Analysis Update (Orbs Launching Orbs)
DOW-UAP-D077 is an All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) Memorandum for Record dated 05 June 2026, signed by AARO Director Jon T. Kosloski, that summarizes AARO's ongoing analysis of a two-day October 2023 incident near a sensitive national security site in the western United States in which six federal law enforcement special agents reported "orbs launching other orbs" (p. 1).
Key excerpts
“Approximately 40 percent of the reported phenomena lack a plausible explanation after first stage analysis and thus remain unresolved. (p. 3)”
“AARO's preliminary exclusion-based hypothesis is that, given the otherwise unexplained kinematic and physical characteristics described in narrative reports, unrecognized technology may account for up to 40 percent of the phenomena associated with this incident. However, this provisional assessment is based solely upon narrative testimony, as well as the elimination of competing hypotheses, and is unsubstantiated by technical data or physical evidence. (p. 4)”
Alternative hypotheses
Military Aircraft Dispensing Flares
AARO: Partially Plausible, about 60 percent of activity).
U.S. Capability Deconfliction / Blue Force
AARO: Plausible, inconclusive).
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
AARO: Unlikely).
Phenomenological and Environmental Factors
AARO: Unlikely).
Misidentified Military Aircraft Exhaust
AARO: Ruled Out).
Foreign Intelligence Activity / Red Force
AARO: Highly Unlikely).
Unrecognized Technology
AARO: Pending, up to about 40 percent).