CIA · CIA-UAP-015
Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Statistical Analysis of 3,200+ UFO Reports)
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (subtitled "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955), the large quantitative study produced for the U.S.
Key excerpts
“Thus, the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS considered in this study are "flying saucers" is concluded to be extremely small, since the most complete and reliable reports from the present data, when isolated and studied, conclusively failed to reveal even a rough model, and since the data as a whole failed to reveal any marked patterns or trends. (p. 94)”
“It is emphasized that there was a complete lack of any valid evidence consisting of physical matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object. (p. 94)”
Alternative hypotheses
Mundane causes plus incomplete data
the report's own conclusion, most probable per the document).
Residual genuine anomaly
the reading CIA-UAP-019 emphasizes).
Categorization and selection artifacts